Doomben tips: Candy looks sweet

The Courier Mail racing editor Nathan Exelby and the bookmaking team from Ladbrokes pinpoint the horses to back and the ones to avoid for the Doomben meeting.

THE FACTORS

Track: Good (4)

Weather: Hazy, 38C

NATHAN’S SUMMARY

BEST BETS

Mosshiki, Race 3, $2.35

Snitch, Race 6, $2.70

The Candy Man, Race 8, $3.30

VALUE BETS

Magic Fox, Race 5, $20

Sofie’s Gold Class, Race 9, $13

MULTI

Quinella, Race 7

3 Tycoon Ace and 4 Spurcraft

LADBROKES SUMMARY

BEST BACKED

Mosshiki, Race 3, $4-$2.35

OTHERS

Lim’s Lightning, Race 7, $81-$26

Sir Plush Race 8, $13-$6.50

Nicholas, Race 4, $21-$14

LAY OF THE DAY

Astro Boy Toy, Race 5, $2.80

BEST BET

Rosendahl Red, Race 4, $26

INTERSTATE

Rosehill, Race 1, Hinchbeast, $3.30-$2.70 (and also a $14 chance in the Magic Millions).

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PUNTING INFO

WEEKEND BEST BETS: LITTLE GREY’S BIG CHANCE

QUINNY’S BEST TIPS: VALUE LIES IN THE WEST

RACE 4: 3.08PM BENCHMARK 75 HANDICAP (2200M)

NATHAN SAYS: Red Stina took an age to wind up last time before eating into the margin of the winner at the end. Up to 2200m looks a plus on that score. She’s drawn out, so Steph Thornton may have to go right back to ensure she’s not stuck wide for the trip. Would love a couple to come out so it brings her a length or two closer. Advance Warning has really come of age this prep and he looks like he’s got more to give. Form ties in with the Dixie Preacher race through Checkmate Lad. The latter two mentioned also have hopes here, with Checkmate doing a power of work in the run last time before being collared late. Rosendahl Red can be forgiven for the latest two runs.

LADBROKES SAY: Nicholas has been $21 into $14. There’s been a few solid bets around for it. First go at the distance, form looks only fair. Red Stina $4.50 into $4.20. We are giving Rosendahl Red a chance at the $26. Saddle slipped last time so it’s a total forgive and there was money for her there.

THE PLAY: RED STINA ON TOP AGAIN.

Astro Boy Toy should benefit from how the speed map pans out.Source:AAP

RACE 5: 3.48PM TAB CLASS 3 HANDICAP (1200M)

NATHAN SAYS: Astro Boy Toy opts to run against older horses at 1200m, rather than resuming at 1350m earlier in the day against his own age. He showed promise last time and it’s reasonable to assume he’s gone ahead from that first campaign. Recent trial was fair enough. He looks short enough in the betting, but the map looks to favour him much better than any of the fancied runners in the market. Have fallen into Magic Fox a few times for no return, but at $20 (in from $31), happy to try him again. He’s a talent when on song and thought he trialled well back on November 4. If on song, he can finish hard for Jimmy Orman. Calzini can also race well at $13.

LADBROKES SAY: Doctor Zous was backed from $8 into $6 early, but he’s come out now. The other one backed early was Magic Fox ($31-$20) and we give him a chance. Astro Boy Toy takes on the older horses and we think he looks skinny odds.

THE PLAY: ASTRO BOY TOY ON TOP, BUT HOPING MAGIC FOX CAN WIND BACK THE CLOCK AND PUT IN HERE.

RACE 6: 4.28PM HANDICAP (1350M)

NATHAN SAYS: Lovely class drop for Snitch here. Has raced without luck his first two runs back, particularly last time when he was wide. He made a little dash in the straight before the run took its toll. Exceptionally placed back to a race like this, particularly with Nick Keal taking 3kg off. He was an Open company winner last prep and his runs, despite being out of the placings, show he’s going just fine at the moment. Stablemate All Important could be the biggest danger. He put to bed 1350m questions last time with a strong display from the front. Crosses again here and should give another big sight. Park Chinois will race well as he always does, while Bellaria could be a big improver back to a race like this.

LADBROKES SAY: A couple have been specked at odds. Cabeirian is $15 into $12. He has a better draw here than his last couple. Rosie Posie has been $26 into $20 after having no luck in the straight last time. Conversely no money for Snitch yet, $2.60-$2.70.

THE PLAY: SNITCH TO BOUNCE BACK. CAN TAKE THE GOLLAN QUINELLA WITH ALL IMPORTANT

Spurcraft looks a good option over the 1050m journey.Source:AAP

RACE 7: 5.08PM BRIBIE HANDICAP (1050M)

NATHAN SAYS: Tarzan’s scratching pulled a bit of value out of this race, with a 10 cent deduction applied. His withdrawal probably helps Spirit’s Choice, as she looked like getting caught wide. Still, prefer Spurcraft over her, as he’s just a ripper over these short courses. Charlotte White always has him ready to rock and he will give them something to chase. Thought the clear danger was Tycoon’s Ace. No $8 now with Tarzan out, but still think $6.50 is generous enough, given he’s going to get the exact same run that took him to victory last time. Has a weight swing vs Spurcraft to overcome, but he’s up and running. Badajoz can run on strongly at the end.

LADBROKES SAY: They will scoot along in this! The good early go was Lim’s Lightning, $81 into $26 at one stage, before back to $31. The other two have been Goldfinch ($15-$10) and Latin Boy ($26-$19). There was a little bit of money for Spurcraft ($4 into $3.80) before Tarzan came out and he’s now clear favourite at $3.20, taking over from Spirit’s Choice ($3.80).

THE PLAY: SPURCRAFT AND TYCOON ACE.

RACE 8: 5.48PM TAB BRISBANE HANDICAP (1600M)

NATHAN SAYS: The Candy Man showed his NSW flops were an aberration when he romped in at the Sunshine Coast last month. He’s unbeaten at Doomben, stays at the same weight and Matt McGillivray can give him a soft run from the draw. No doubt he’s superior on wet ground, but there’s not much that says you should pot the good track record either. Can see Sir Plush running a race and understand the market square up. Prioritise is going better than his $14 price tag suggests. Gets to his right trip now off two good short course runs.

LADBROKES SAY: Sir Plush has been the early go. We went up $13 and he’s half that now. He hit the line well in the $1M Gong and our punters think he’s well placed The people’s champ The Candy Man was $8 in our pre-post book for this race and he was certainly popular (into $4.50 before acceptors). In the final market field, he’s been solid at $3.40 and now $3.30. At the $14, Nicoletta could give a big sight on the speed coming off a stronger race.

THE PLAY: THE CANDY MAN CAN AGAIN.

Jadentom has a huge weight but he is super honest.Source:News Regional Media

RACE 9: 6.25PM FILLIES & MARES (1350M)

NATHAN SAYS: Plenty of chances at the top. Don’t think there’s a lot between Jadentom (not as well suited weights this time and 1350m seems outer limit, but she’s super honest), Snow Valley (strong late first up, suited this trip now), Shalwa (super brave, battled on. Has wide draw again, but could cross more easily) and Epic Girl. The latter chased a red hot speed first up and was just found out. Softer tempo/1350m looks big pluses for her and she did SP shorter than all others coming out of that same race. There’s new blood in the shape of Sofie’s Gold Class, who looks a chance at $13. Yet to be tested this sort of grade, but has come through her classes and fresh form is excellent. She should be running on hard for Larry Cassidy.

LADBROKES SAY: Jadentom has been $4.40 into $4.20. Shalwa is $10 into $9. If Shalwa had drawn better, we would have been all over her, but from 12 it’s just a worry where she gets to. She was enormous last time chasing after drawing wide.

THE PLAY: SOFIE’S GOLD CLASS AT THE ODDS, BUT WANT EPIC GIRL ON SIDE TOO.

FROM THE HORSE’S MOUTH

“I think he is still up to Sydney class, but the Brisbane 1600m races are a bit weaker. He was entered in Sydney last week, but we scratched him to stay home and chase our stakes races. The fact he is getting down in the weights will help.”

— Natalie McCall, Spectroscope, Race 8

“He was going to have 12 weeks out anyway and we decided to make it a very good break. He has had a couple of jump outs and is ready to go.”

— Charlotte White, Spurcraft (Race 7), who has had tie back surgery since he last raced.

“To put it simply he got run off his feet both times he has raced and both times he made up plenty of ground. We have been waiting to get him out to 1200m before putting blinkers on him. He has worked in them and I liked the way he went.”

— Stuart Kendrick, Way Beyond, Race 1

“He’ll need some luck as usual and I would have been more confident had the race been at Eagle Farm. But having said that, he’s three from three at Doomben, so I’m probably being a bit over cautious.”

— Barry Baldwin, The Candy Man, Race 8

“I’d much prefer it to be third up over 1350m, but it is what it is. She’ll be competitive, but I’m a bit worried the last 50m might find her out.”

— Chris Anderson, Epic Girl, Race 9

“She ran a terrific race from an awkward draw last start. They were good quality fillies and it was a sharp race. She’s probably not the sharpest mare in the world, but she’s one of the toughest you’ll ever see and that’s why I think now the 1350m will suit her well.”

— Chris Munce, Skate To Paris, Race 9

Originally published asDoomben tips: Candy looks sweet

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