Selections based on a good track.
Race 1 – 12:45PM CASINO PRINCE @ VINERY HANDICAP (1200M)
8. Born To Play was scratched from Anzac Day to run here and while this race looks to have considerable depth this filly could be a smart one. That’s judging on the one time we’ve seen her in a trial a few weeks ago where she was strong late and through the line. Drawn nicely and should go close.
Dangers: 9. Joliette has had more trialling than her stablemate and she improved significantly from her first on a soft track to the second on a good track this time in. Held up for a run until late in the last trial so the small margin misleads a bit. Sure to run well. 2. Hulk to complete the Chris Waller trifecta. He showed ability on debut at Moonee Valley before pulling up late in a Blue Diamond Prelude. Only trial for Waller had merit and he should be kept safe. 1. Diamond Thunder always had some control and kicked away for a soft first-up Hawkesbury win a couple of weeks back. Expect he will roll forward from the gate and be on the pace, and he can’t be overlooked.
How to play it: Born To Play WIN.
Race 2 – 1:20PM THE AGENCY REAL ESTATE HANDICAP (1200M)
2. Leami Astray resumes without a trial but has had two jump-outs at home and has struck a very winnable race. She’s effective fresh and in the small field will likely get some control near the speed. Yet to win at 1200m but never tried it fresh before, she’s a good chance.
Dangers: 6. One Fire Beach might well be looking for further than this first-up but there was so much to like about her trial at Canterbury recently. She was only let go late in the 900m trial and closed off nicely. No surprise to see her run a big race fresh. 1. Montrachet is the early favourite and I can see why but she’s also a bit of a risk. She trialled in the same heat as One Fire Beach and that horse was going by far the better. That said this is by far the easiest contest she’s faced since her maiden win a year ago so she’s a definite chance, if a bit under the odds. 3. Alnaas generally takes a run or two to hit top form but with only four rivals she's not to be overlooked. Quiet trial recently isn't much of a guide so check betting.
How to play it: Leami Astray WIN.
Race 3 – 1.55PM EVENTS BY ATC PLATE (1100M)
6. Invinciano is good value on the back of a luckless first-up run at Hawkesbury. Beaten 1.2 lengths but ran the fastest 400m-200m (11.35, Punter's Intelligence) before being badly held up and checked and the way she was climbing over their backs at the finish you’d say she wins easily if she gets a break. Bit harder here but with even luck looks capable of winning.
Dangers: 1. Cops And Robbers was very well supported first-up at Wyong and blew the start badly, tailing out some four lengths off the pack. While the winner was full of running at the finish, he did a big job to run second and he’d be worth keeping safe here. 2. Embracer is the big query runner coming off a couple of trial wins. The first was a jump-and-run, six-length win then he was held together in scoring in the second. Full brother to Champagne Stakes placegetter Lady Lupino and a half to the likes of Star Witness and Nostradamus. Must be respected. 4. Phoenix River has promised a bit more than he’s delivered so far but has bumped into races with some depth. Freshened since placing behind Green Aeon here in March and trialled nicely. Capable if he puts it all together.
How to play it: Invinciano E/W; Box Quinella 1,2,6.
Race 4 – 2.35PM ANZ BLOODSTOCK NEWS HANDICAP (1300M)
3. Reelem In Ruby goes on top and is the one to beat but the map is a bit of a concern. She settled last first-up a couple of weeks back and just missed after charging home. Fitter for that and another 100m is a plus. If the tempo is OK she should win, but it’ll be harder if she’s back and they go slowly.
Dangers: 1. Zouologist was quite strong late in breaking through first-up over this course after sitting outside the lead. Likely he’ll either lead or be right there again and that makes him hard to beat. 8. Task And Purpose was a shade slow out in the same race and settled last before working home quite well very late. Had some support there so obviously expected to run well so with a kinder draw, assuming she jumps, she can be closer and harder to hold out. That said she’s an 11 start maiden currently. 6. Singing Sand was a winner over 1300m here first-up last prep then placed in better company before going off the boil. Quiet trial coming in and a soft draw, she could fire here.
How to play it: Reelem In Ruby WIN.
Race 5 – 3.10PM TAB REWARDS HANDICAP (2110M)
2. Carif is short enough in the betting but finds a very winnable race coming off some sound efforts in good three-year-old company over the carnival. Hit the line well behind the Derby quinella at Rosehill two starts back then too far back in the Frank Packer Plate last time. Chance to settle closer here and control his own destiny.
Dangers: 6. Mrs Madrid also comes out of a three-year-old carnival event, this time the Adrian Knox, and she wasn’t disgraced at all beaten a couple of lengths and that was with five weeks between runs. Rolls forward you’d think and has to be considered. 7. Hostwin Epanoui ran his best race this time in to be third at Hawkesbury behind Belfast Bella whose form has stacked up. Probably can’t win but sure give some kind of sight on the speed. 8 Cool One comes through the same race as Hostwin Epanoui and she was running on at the finish into fourth. Ran well three starts back here over 2400m and could be placed.
How to play it: Carif WIN; Trifecta 2/6,7,8/6,7,8.
Race 6 – 3:50PM SAXON WARRIOR @ COOLMORE MILE (1600M)
6. Mystic Hill is a very promising filly who faces her biggest test to date but looks right up to it. She resumed with a nice win at Newcastle where she settled second last and weaved through to win pulling away. Impressed at her only start at a mile before a spell and there looks to be enough speed for her here. Take plenty of beating.
Dangers: 4. Jazzland is another up and comer who could develop into a handy stayer this time in. Only defeat last prep was to Scarlet Dream so that’s no disgrace at all and he did trial quite nicely at 1200m recently. Will improve on whatever he does but no surprise to see him win. 1. Tahsin backed up his solid fresh effort with a placing over this course two weeks ago where he settled a little further back than anticipated. All his good form is at a mile and drops a couple of grades into this, hence the weight rise. Definite chance. 2. Restrained looks a risk at a strong mile the way he only battled into third here over 1400m last time. Despite drawing wide he had a perfect run, loomed and weakened out to just hold third. Stranger things have happened but happy to take him on at the mile.
How to play it: Mystic Hill WIN; Trifecta 6/1,2,4/1,2,4.
Race 7 – 4:25PM AUSTRALIAN TURF CLUB HANDICAP (1200M)
3. Destiny’s Own has trialled up quite well for his first run as a gelding and given his on-pace style he might have some favours first-up. Ran well for three placings on wet tracks at the start of last prep and if he runs up to any of them he’s in the finish. Each-way probably safer but should be competitive.
Dangers: 1. Ronstar tried very hard to run down Invictus Salute here first-up and he only failed narrowly. Fitter for that and the claim does bring him down 1kg on that effort. Hasn’t won for a while, so that’s a concern but gets a chance to here. 8. Up Trumpz is a consistent sprinter who doesn’t win out of turn but he was a bit unlucky behind Wagner two starts back then sound third here with Signore Fox just ahead of him a month ago. Can’t leave out. 2. Tchaikovsky has been gelded since a very disappointing fourth back in February where he had the cold sit on the leaders and didn’t get near them at the finish. Two trials back and the latter was a solid clean out so it points to him running well. But do you trust him, even now he’s been gelded? I’d like to see him do it first.
How to play it: Destiny’s Own E/W.
Tips supplied by Racing NSW
Full form and race replays at racingnsw.com.au
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