Each and every year, one or two NFL teams are bad enough that someone decides to ask the question “Could Alabama beat [crappy NFL team]?” It’s always Alabama because Nick Saban is a cyborg sent from the future to destroy parity in college football (and succeeding).
This year the team to get the “Can Bama beat them?” treatment is the Buffalo Bills, and this year, with gambling as widespread as it’s been in years, we’re getting actual odds on the game.
They will shock you. No, really, they will, and you definitely will want to take Alabama, because the Tide would be catching almost 30 points from the Buffalo Bills, according to Jeff Sherman of SuperBook USA, who tweeted on Thursday the Bills would be 28.5-point favorites over the Crimson Tide.
This is pretty remarkable when you think about it. Alabama is producing maybe the greatest team Nick Saban has ever had in Tuscaloosa, a run that is jam-packed with incredible teams. Saban’s boys have been steamrolling over opponents for years. Even if this isn’t his best team ever, it’s definitely his best offense since he arrived back in the SEC.
Meanwhile, the Bills are producing one of the worst offenses in NFL history, far and away the worst offense in the NFL this year, especially when Nathan Peterman steps under center.
But it speaks to the vast gulf in the game. There might be 15 first-round picks on the Bama roster … eventually, but not all of them are first-round picks today. All the Bills players aren’t first-round picks either, but they are all NFL players.
As Aaron Kessler of the Golden Nugget pointed out, the Bills might struggle to score 29 points against an NFL defense, but LeSean McCoy is naming his price in terms of rushing yards and the Bills might be naming their price in terms of the score.
Let’s not forget, too, that while this might be the best overall team Saban’s ever had, there is an argument it’s not even the best team in college football. Oh yeah, I went there.
Clemson is actually ranked higher defensively according to S&P metrics (second to Alabama’s 11th) and not that far behind on offense (seventh to Alabama’s second, with the Tide behind only Oklahoma).
The Bills, by the way, are a top-10 team defensively. Tua Tagovailoa has been carving up the likes of Ole Miss and even LSU, but the Bills would be a next-level challenge and would likely shut down the Tide’s offense. Once they got a lead, Tua would be forced into playing one-dimensional football and Bama would be in big trouble.
Thirty points is a lot to cover and maybe the Bills would “only” win 28-0 (sort of like Bama against LSU last weekend) but it would most certainly be a decisive victory for the professionals. Anyone betting on the Tide might as well scribble sucker on their forehead.
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