Amari Cooper makes his debut with the Dallas Cowboys when they host the Tennessee Titans on Monday Night Football. Dallas shipped a first-round draft pick to Jon Gruden and the Raiders for Cooper. Now, he’s had two weeks to learn the offense while the Cowboys were on bye. Dallas’ opponent for Monday Night Football, the Tennessee Titans, didn’t make any moves at the trade deadline, but were a two-point conversion away from beating the Chargers in London in their last game.
Dallas was favored by as many as 6.5 points for Monday’s game, but the line has retreated back to five in the latest Cowboys vs. Titans odds. The over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, has also fallen. It opened at 42, but is now 40, the second-lowest total of the week. Before you make any Cowboys vs. Titans picks for Monday Night Football, see what SportsLine’s Projection Model has to say.
The model simulates every game 10,000 times to produce against-the-spread, over-under and money-line picks. In a straight-up, pick’em format, the model went 176-80 last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Office Pool players in 2016 and ’17, performing better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000.
The model was a blistering 13-1 straight up last week. Additionally, it was a strong 6-0 on all top-rated picks in Week 8, including nailing the Redskins (-1) over the Giants and the Seahawks (+3) vs. the Lions. That perfect mark in Week 8 improved its overall run to 68-43 on all top-rated picks. Anybody who has been following these picks is way, way up.
Now, the model has simulated Cowboys vs. Titans 10,000 times. We will tell you that the model is leaning toward the over, but it has also locked in a bold point-spread pick that hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.
The model knows that despite the focus on Cooper’s first game with America’s Team, the Cowboys are always at their best when running back Ezekiel Elliott gets a healthy dose of the ball. Dallas is 3-1 when Elliott gets at least 20 touches, and this week he faces a Titans defense that ranks 19th against the run, Elliott could see more open room to run than he’s used to if Cooper can attract defensive attention.
In the three Cowboys victories, Elliott has averaged 112 yards per game. He’s found the end zone in four of seven games this season and is a dual-threat with 25 receptions this season.
Dallas is also No. 4 in total defense, allowing just 313.7 yards per game, and is tops in the NFL in points allowed at 17.6 per game. The Cowboys also embarrassed the only other AFC South team they played this season, the Jaguars, 40-7.
However, don’t assume that means the Titans can’t cover on “Monday Night Football.”
Dean Pees also has the Titans’ defense in incredible shape, as the unit ranks No. 3 in the NFL in scoring defense and No. 11 in total defense. Logan Ryan, Malcolm Butler and Adoree’ Jackson have been difference-makers in the secondary and helped the Titans’ pass defense rank No. 9 in the NFL.
With Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott throwing for just 202 yards per game, moving the ball through the air figures to be a challenge. And while the newly-signed Cooper should help, Dallas won’t have the luxury of moving him around the formation because he’s going to face a strong cornerback no matter where he lines up.
Who wins Titans vs. Cowboys? And which side of the spread hits well over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on Monday, all from the computer model that has returned nearly $4,000 to $100 bettors over the past two seasons.
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