Monday Night Football Betting Preview: Odds, trends, picks for Chargers-Saints

Two teams that have started the season slowly will face each other Monday night when the Chargers visit the Saints. The Saints are currently eight-point favorites, but the pros and the joes appear to have a difference of opinion about this game. While 54 percent of the tickets are taking the points with the Chargers, 64 percent of the money is laying the eight points with the Saints. New Orleans is a -400 moneyline favorite, and the over/under is set at 50 total points.

Per BetQL’s Line Movement Dashboard, the spread has not moved very much, as the Saints originally opened as 7.5-point favorites. However, the Line Movement Dashboard shows significant line movement, as the total has fallen to 50 total points after opening at 52.

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BetQL’s NFL Best Bet Model lists a four-star totals bet and three-star moneyline bet. Keep reading to find out what one of them is.

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Chargers Outlook

The Chargers have arguably played better than their 1-3 win-loss record. The Chargers have covered three of their first four games. Los Angeles has been competitive in every one of their losses, including taking the defending Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs to overtime. The Chargers average net differential per game is a respectable minus-three points. By contrast, the Saints’ average net differential per game is zero points.

Justin Herbert took over the starting quarterback job after Tyrod Taylor’s lungs were punctured from an injection from the Chargers’ medical staff. While the Chargers have yet to win a game in any of Herbert’s three starts, the first-roun dpick has exceeded expectations. Herbert has thrown for 931 yards and completed 72 percent of his passes. Herbert’s passer rating of 102.2 is the 11th best in the league among quarterbacks who have thrown at least 100 passes this season. Herbert has a better passer rating than former Pro BowlersTom Brady, Matt Ryan, and Deshaun Watson.

The Chargers rank sixth in the NFL in offensive yards per game. Los Angeles is outgaining their opponents by an average of 26.5 yards per game. The Chargers’ problem thus far has been their carelessness with the football. The Chargers are tied for the sixth-most turnovers and are tied for the fifth-worst turnover differential.

Saints Outlook

The Saints are off to a disappointing 2-2 start this season after winning 13 of their 16 regular season games last season. New Orleans’ passing game has underperformed compared to past seasons. The Saints rank just 17th in passing yards per game. The Saints ranked seventh in passing yards per game last season. Drew Brees is on pace to pass for fewer yards per game this season than in any other season since he arrived in New Orleans.

The Saints defense has played fairly well, at least compared to the team’s offense. The Saints surrender the sixth fewest total yards per game and rushing yards per game. The Saints are 22-6 against the spread in the last 28 games that Sean Payton has coached against teams, like the Chargers, that give up at least 260 passing yards per game. October has historically been a good month for Saints’ backers, as they’ve covered the spread in 36 of their last 51 October games coached by Payton.

Prediction

BetQL’s NFL Model has identified over the first-half total of 24.5 points as a four-star bet. The Betql model projects the first-half total should be 26 points. The average first-half total in Saints’ games this season is 32.5 points, while the average first-half total in Chargers’ games this season is 24 points.

The BetQL Model also labels the Saints’ moneyline of -400 as a three-star bet. The model shows that the Saints have a 69-percent chance of defeating the Chargers and should be a -467 moneyline favorite. 

 You can find all updated lines, odds, spreads, and NFL picks at BetQL!

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