NFL odds, picks for Week 10: Proven computer model loving Redskins and Patriots

There are four double-digit lines in the latest Week 10 NFL odds, but multiple division leaders are also facing tough challenges. The New England Patriots roll into Nashville to take on new head coach Mike Vrabel and the Tennessee Titans as 6.5-point favorites, with the over-under dropping two from the opener to 46.5. The Cincinnati Bengals, meanwhile, also face a division leader when they host the NFC South-leading New Orleans Saints (-5.5). And in the wide-open NFC East, the Redskins are now three-point underdogs, up from opening of one, at Tampa Bay as they try to hang on to their one-game lead over the Eagles. With NFL odds and spreads of all sizes available this week, be sure to check out the top Week 10 NFL picks and predictions from SportsLine’s advanced computer.

SportsLine’s proprietary computer model went 176-80 last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Sports Office Pool players in 2016 and ’17. It also performed better than 98 percent of experts tracked by during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who have followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000. 

The model has continued to nail its top-rated picks in 2018, entering Week 10 on a strong 8-0 run. For the season, it is now 22-9 on all top-rated picks, extending its two-year run to a blistering 70-43. And when it comes to all straight-up picks, the model is 89-43 this season, again ranking in the top 10 on Anybody who has been following it is way, way up. 

Now it has examined the latest NFL odds and spreads, simulated every snap 10,000 times, and its Week 10 NFL picks are in.

One of the top Week 10 NFL picks the model loves: the Patriots (-6.5) cover in Nashville against the Titans. 

Plenty of familiar faces will meet up in this matchup as Titans coach Mike Vrabel takes on former coach Bill Belichick. And although Tennessee pulled off the upset in Week 9 on the road against the Cowboys, the model likes the value on the Patriots this weekend. 

Tom Brady throws for over 300 yards, according to the model, helping New England cover in almost 55 percent of simulations. There’s also plenty of value on the under (48.5) because that hits over 55 percent of the time in this battle of two defenses that are giving up fewer than 23 points per game. 

Another one of the strong Week 10 NFL predictions from the model: the Redskins (+3) cover on the road against the Buccaneers. 

Despite leading the NFC East with a 5-3 mark, the Redskins have been regularly undervalued by Vegas this year. They are 5-3 against the spread as they take on a Tampa Bay squad (3-5 ATS) that has often received too much credit from oddsmakers. 

That might be the case again on Sunday. The line opened at Tampa Bay -1, but bettors have pushed the spread two points in favor of the Bucs. The model predicts that Washington’s top-10 scoring defense will hold Bucs quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick under 275 yards of passing as the Redskins cover in almost 55 percent of simulations. That defensive effort also helps push this game Under 51.5 points more than 60 percent of the time.

The model also has a strong selection for the huge Cowboys vs. Eagles showdown on “Sunday Night Football” and is calling for a Super Bowl contender to get a huge scare against a big underdog. 

What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 10? And what Super Bowl contender gets a huge scare? Check out the latest NFL odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that has beaten 98 percent of experts over the past two years.

Carolina Panthers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5, 51.5)
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (-6.5, 36.5)
Atlanta Falcons at Cleveland Browns (+4.5, 50.5)
New Orleans Saints at Cincinnati Bengals (+5.5, 54)
Washington Redskins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3, 51.5)
New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans (+6.5, 46.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-3, 46.5)
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-6.5, 45)
Arizona Cardinals at Kansas City Chiefs (-16.5, 49.5)
Los Angeles Chargers at Oakland Raiders (+10, 49)
Miami Dolphins at Green Bay Packers (-10, 47.5)
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-9.5, 50)
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-7, 43)
New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers (-3, 44)

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