NFL odds, picks for Week 9: Advanced computer model loving Broncos, Chiefs

Another week of NFL action is already here and the Week 9 NFL odds continue to shift as news comes out from around the league. Vikings wide receiver Stefon Diggs (ribs) is questionable, along with defensive back Xavier Rhodes (foot). Those key injuries, one on each side of the ball, has caused the line to drop from Vikings -6.5 to -5.5 against the Lions. The over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, has also fallen from 50.5 to 48.5 in the latest NFL odds. And after the Browns made Hue Jackson the first coaching casualty of the season, Cleveland has moved from +8.5 to +8 against the 7-1 Chiefs for the first game under interim head coach Gregg Williams. According to the latest NFL odds and lines, every single game except Bears (-10) vs. Bills is expected to be within one score, so be sure to check out the Week 9 NFL picks and predictions from SportsLine’s proven computer model. 

SportsLine’s proprietary computer model went 176-80 last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Sports Office Pool players in 2016 and ’17. It also performed better than 98 percent of experts tracked by during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who have followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000.

The model was a blistering 13-1 straight-up last week. Additionally, it was a strong 6-0 on all top-rated picks in Week 8, including nailing the Redskins (-1) over the Giants and the Seahawks (+3) over the Lions. That perfect mark in Week 8 improved its overall run to 68-43 on all top-rated picks. Anybody who has been following those picks is way, way up.

Now it has simulated every snap 10,000 times and its Week 9 NFL picks are in.

One of the top Week 9 NFL picks the model loves: the Chiefs (-8) cover on the road against the Browns in Cleveland’s first game under interim head coach Gregg Williams.

Cleveland moved on from Hue Jackson this week after a disastrous 3-36-1 run. An interim coach can sometimes galvanize a team, and the initial line has dropped half-a-point as bettors are considering that possibility. But the model sees a talent disparity that’s too big for Cleveland to cover.

Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes goes off for over 300 yards of total offense against Cleveland’s 28th-ranked defense as Kansas City covers in almost 60 percent of simulations. The model is also calling for 55 total points, giving plenty of value to the Over (51).

Another pick the model loves: the Broncos (-1) cover at home against the Texans despite sending wide receiver Demaryius Thomas to the opposing sideline at the NFL trade deadline.

Thomas gives Houston a veteran receiver to help make up for the loss of Will Fuller to a torn ACL, but the model expects the added work for rookie Courtland Sutton to offset the loss. The model is calling for Sutton to catch four passes for 60 yards for Denver, while Thomas has four catches for 50 yards in his Houston debut.

With the line falling all the way from Broncos -3, the model says Denver covers in almost 55 percent of simulations. There’s also a strong value on the Over (46) because that hits 60 percent of the time. 

The model also has a strong selection for the huge Patriots vs. Packers showdown on Sunday Night Football, and is calling for a Super Bowl contender to get knocked off in a game that will shake up the NFL playoff picture forever.

What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 9? And what Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Check out the latest NFL odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that has beaten 98 percent of experts over the past two years.

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5, 48.5)
Kansas City Chiefs at Cleveland Browns (+8, 52)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5, 47)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-6.5, 55)
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-2.5, 43)
Atlanta Falcons at Washington Redskins (-2, 48)
Chicago Bears at Buffalo Bills (+10, 37.5)
Houston Texans at Denver Broncos (-1, 46)
Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints (+2, 57.5)
Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots (-5, 56.5)
Tennessee Titans at Dallas Cowboys (-5, 40)

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