NFL odds, picks for Week 9: Proven computer model loving Redskins and Chiefs

Week 9 NFL odds continue to shift as several teams will have a new look. The Cowboys are 5.5-point favorites, up from -4, in Amari Cooper’s debut in Dallas against the Titans on Monday Night Football. The Texans were 3-point underdogs earlier this week against the Broncos, but that line has dropped to just one after Demaryius Thomas was shipped from Denver to Houston. And it’s back to quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick for the Buccaneers after Jameis Winston was picked four times in Week 8. FitzMagic and the Bucs face the Panthers (-6) in a game that has seen the total move from 54 to 55. With so many storylines to keep track of, check out the top Week 9 NFL picks and predictions from SportsLine’s advanced computer before laying any wagers of your own.

SportsLine’s proprietary computer model went 176-80 last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Sports Office Pool players in 2016 and ’17. It also performed better than 98 percent of experts tracked by during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who have followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000.

The model was a blistering 13-1 straight-up last week. Additionally, it was a strong 6-0 on all top-rated picks in Week 8, including nailing the Redskins (-1) over the Giants and the Seahawks (+3) over the Lions. That perfect mark in Week 8 improved its overall run to 68-43 on all top-rated picks. Anybody who has been following those picks is way, way up.

Now it has simulated every snap 10,000 times and its Week 9 NFL picks are in.

One of the top Week 9 NFL picks the model loves: the Chiefs (-8) cover on the road against the Browns in Cleveland’s first game under interim head coach Gregg Williams.

Cleveland moved on from Hue Jackson this week after a disastrous 3-36-1 run. An interim coach can sometimes galvanize a team, and the initial line has dropped half-a-point as bettors are considering that possibility. But the model sees a talent disparity that’s too big for Cleveland to cover.

Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes goes off for over 300 yards of total offense against Cleveland’s 28th-ranked defense as Kansas City covers in almost 60 percent of simulations. The model is also calling for 55 total points, giving plenty of value to the Over (51).

Another pick the model loves: the Redskins (-1.5) cover the spread at home against the Falcons. 

At 5-2 both straight-up and against the spread, Washington has shattered expectations this season, combining the veteran backfield of Alex Smith at quarterback with a rejuvenated Adrian Peterson at running back and a top-five scoring defense. The Redskins enter Week 9 with three straight wins and further solidified their defense by acquiring safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix from the Packers before the trade deadline. 

Atlanta, meanwhile, has won two straight, but this will be a huge jump in competition after facing the Buccaneers and Giants the last two weeks. Washington gets 250 yards of passing from Smith and almost 100 on the ground from Peterson, according to the model. That helps the Redskins cover almost 60 percent of the time, while the Over (47) hits in almost 55 percent of simulations. 

The model also has a strong selection for the huge Patriots vs. Packers showdown on Sunday Night Football, and is calling for a Super Bowl contender to get knocked off by an underdog in a game that will shake up the NFL playoff picture forever.

What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 9? And what Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Check out the latest NFL odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that has beaten 98 percent of experts over the past two years.

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-5, 49)
Kansas City Chiefs at Cleveland Browns (+8, 52)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5, 47)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-6, 55)
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-3, 43.5)
Atlanta Falcons at Washington Redskins (-1.5, 48)
Chicago Bears at Buffalo Bills (+10, 37.5)
Houston Texans at Denver Broncos (-1, 46)
Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints (+2, 58.5)
Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots (-5, 56.5)
Tennessee Titans at Dallas Cowboys (-5.5, 40.5)

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