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With just three rounds left of the AFLW season, there are five teams pushing for a top-four finish and 13 clubs who could make the finals.
Throw in two top-four clashes, pivotal percentage on the line and four-point games that feel more like eight-point contests, and we’ve got a tantalising weekend of round eight AFLW footy coming up that could have big implications on ladder placings.
Joanna Lin of Collingwood.Credit: Getty Images
This second weekend of the league’s Indigenous round could be the one that decisively shapes the battle for the premiership as the competition steamrolls towards the finals.
Much is on the line.
The battle for top four, the fight for 5-8
Even before the season started, there were four teams touted for a top-four finish: reigning premiers Narrm (Melbourne), three-time premiers Adelaide, last season’s grand finalists the Brisbane Lions and the finals-experienced North Melbourne.
They all clash on Saturday, which could determine where they finish in a few weeks.
First up, the fourth-placed Lions (5-2) will host ladder-leaders Crows (7-0) at Brighton Homes Arena before the Demons (6-1) take on the Kangaroos (6-1) at Ikon Park.
The Lions are most at risk this weekend.
While many fans have all but locked in the above teams for a double chance come finals, there could be an upset to what’s become the natural order in the AFLW. If the Lions lose to Adelaide and Essendon (5-2) beat West Coast (1-6) on Sunday evening, the Bombers will leapfrog the Lions into the top four.
Madison Prespakis of the Bombers is challenged by Natalie Plane of the Saints.Credit: Getty Images
Essendon then play Carlton and Gold Coast in the last two rounds, which are hard games but not out-of-the-question wins. Especially if they get some momentum with a big victory over the Eagles at Windy Hill this Sunday.
However, theoretically, all the teams on 4-3 could also make the top-four – Geelong, Gold Coast, Collingwood, Carlton and St Kilda. But they could also miss finals altogether.
They all can’t make it, meaning there’ll be plenty of tension at Victoria Park on Sunday when Collingwood host Geelong for a game that will feel like there’s more than just four points on the line. The loser will make a run for finals a lot harder for themselves.
Adding to this, Richmond, Sydney and Walyalup (Fremantle) are all on 3-4, and if they win all their remaining games and have others above them drop some, could also sneak into the eight.
It’s a round with a big percentage factor
We know percentage can make the difference between making finals or not, and this is even more the case with only 10 rounds in the season and many teams (currently) equal on points as they jockey for a top-eight finish.
Five teams sit on 4-3 and just three of those are in the eight, with Carlton and St Kilda on the cusp with lower percentages. The Cats are top of those with a percentage of 123, while the Saints are on 97.3.
This is why each of those teams’ games this weekend matters – a lot. Drop the win and you could be out, win and you’d want to do so by enough of a margin to get the edge over the others in the hunt: GWS v Carlton, Yartapuulti (Port Adelaide) v Gold Coast and Walyalup (the Dockers) v St Kilda.
Despite being four points ahead of the pack, throw the Bombers’ meeting with the Eagles in there too, as they very well could drop one of their upcoming games against the Blues and Suns. They’d want to rack up the goals against 17th-placed Eagles.
Alyssa Bannan of the Demons celebrates a goal.Credit: Getty
Now, let’s head back up the ladder for a second. Percentage could determine where the grand final is played.
Given that for the grand final, in AFLW, the team that finishes higher on the ladder gets home-ground advantage, there’s more on the line with the minor premiership/where teams finish within the top eight.
Last season, the Lions finished on top of the ladder ahead of the Demons by just 0.3 of a percentage point, meaning the decider was played at Springfield in Queensland rather than the MCG.
Adelaide won’t just be hoping to beat the Brisbane Lions but to do so with enough of a margin to give them a boost to stay ahead in the top two. Melbourne, North Melbourne and the Lions will all have that same goal.
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