Opta’s supercomputer predicts Everton’s chance of relegation has risen by over 30 PER CENT following the Toffees’ 10-point deduction
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Everton’s fears of relegation have increased by over 30 per cent following confirmation the club has been hit by a 10-point deduction.
The Toffees were plunged to 19th in the Premier League after the bombshell announcement on Friday.
The club were deducted points by an independent commission for breaching the league’s profit and sustainability rules.
Everton had been 14th in the Premier League prior to the deduction, with Sean Dyche’s side pulling away from trouble with three wins in their last five matches.
According to an Opta supercomputer, the Toffees prospects of relegation had stood at 3.5 per cent prior to the deduction.
Everton have suffered the hammer blow of a 10-point deduction for breaching financial rules
The ruling has seen Sean Dyche’s side drop from 14th to 19th in the Premier League table
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The penalty has seen their chance of relegation dramatically climb to 34.1 per cent.
Despite the deduction, Everton are not considered to be one of the three relegation favourites with the analytics company.
Premier League bottom club Burnley, who are now level with Everton on four points, are 80.6 per cent favourites to immediately return to the Championship.
Fellow promoted clubs Sheffield United and Luton are considered clear favourites to join the Clarets in the bottom three at the end of the season.
Sheffield United and Luton have been calculated to have an 78 and 70 per cent chance of going straight back down, despite Everton’s deduction.
Chance of relegation before Everton’s points deduction
Everton – 3.5%
Burnley – 86.6%
Sheffield United – 84.2%
Luton Town – 77.8%
Bournemouth – 36.8%
Source: Opta
Chance of relegation after Everton’s points deduction
Everton – 34.1%
Burnley – 80.6%
Sheffield United – 78%
Luton Town – 70%
Bournemouth – 29.4%
Source: Opta
Premier League table after points penalty
The Hatters moved out of the bottom three following Friday’s announcement, but are just two points clear of Everton.
Everton’s punishment came after the club was referred to an independent commission in March for alleged breaches which related to the 2021-22 season and a hearing took place last month.
The Premier League pushed for a sizable points deduction to set a precedent after the club were charged with breaching financial rules back in 2021-22. The Toffees posted staggering financial losses of almost £372million over a three-year period.
That is more than £250m above what the Premier League’s guidelines permits clubs to lose over a three-year rolling time frame. The technical alleged breaches related to accounting treatments, with the League arguing Everton breached profit and sustainability rules (PSR).
A Premier League statement this afternoon read: ‘An independent Commission has imposed an immediate deduction of 10 points on Everton FC for a breach of the Premier League’s Profitability and Sustainability Rules (PSRs).
Vincent Kompany’s Burnley remain the clear favourites to be relegated from the top flight
Fellow promoted sides Sheffield United and Luton Town are also expected to suffer relegation
‘The Premier League issued a complaint against the club and referred the case to an independent commission earlier this year.
‘During the proceedings, the club admitted it was in breach of the PSRs for the period ending Season 2021-22 but the extent of the breach remained in dispute.
‘Following a five-day hearing last month, the commission determined that Everton FC’s PSR calculation for the relevant period resulted in a loss of £124.5million, as contended by the Premier League, which exceeded the threshold of £105million permitted under the PSRs.
‘The commission concluded that a sporting sanction in the form of a 10-point deduction should be imposed. That sanction has immediate effect.’
Everton will appeal the verdict in the strongest possible way. They strongly deny they did not breach PSR and their financial losses were due to the building of a new stadium at Bramley Moore Dock and whether the interest payments on that development were permissible.
The Toffees believe a sporting sanction is wholly disproportionate and completely inappropriate. Everton will point to previous cases such as when six Premier League clubs were given a meagre fine for trying to break the football pyramid with the European Super League.
Portsmouth were the last Premier League team to be docked points when they entered administration in 2010 and were given a 10-point penalty, ultimately relegating them.
An Everton statement read: ‘Everton Football Club is both shocked and disappointed by the ruling of the Premier League’s Commission.
‘The Club believes that the Commission has imposed a wholly disproportionate and unjust sporting sanction. The Club has already communicated its intention to appeal the decision to the Premier League. The appeal process will now commence and the Club’s case will be heard by an Appeal Board appointed pursuant to the Premier League’s rules in due course.
The Toffees, currently owned by Farhad Moshiri (right), are selling the club to Josh Wander (left) who is leading the 777 takeover, which still needs to be approved
777 have contingency plans in light of Everton’s points deduction (pictured – Wander (right centre with cap) and co-founder Steven Pasko (left centre with cap)
‘Everton maintains that it has been open and transparent in the information it has provided to the Premier League and that it has always respected the integrity of the process. The Club does not recognise the finding that it failed to act with the utmost good faith and it does not understand this to have been an allegation made by the Premier League during the course of proceedings.
‘Both the harshness and severity of the sanction imposed by the Commission are neither a fair nor a reasonable reflection of the evidence submitted. The Club will also monitor with great interest the decisions made in any other cases concerning the Premier League’s Profit and Sustainability Rules.
‘Everton cannot comment on this matter any further until the appeal process has concluded.’
The punishment increases the spotlight on both Manchester City and Chelsea and a former advisor to City tweeted that the precedent set by Everton’s penalty could later result in relegation for both Premier League heavyweights.
City face 115 alleged breaches of the Premier League’s financial rules and Chelsea could face scrutiny over alleged payments connected to former owner Roman Abramovich.
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